All numbers in this section are illustrative, intended to convey order of magnitude. They are based on conservative ranges from the published literature for each conversion technology and are explicitly subject to refinement in the Programme's feasibility-study phase. The Programme is not asking the reader to commit to these specific figures — it is asking the reader to commit to the logic of the architecture they describe.
| Stage | Indicative figure (per ha-yr) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cultivation surface | 1 ha (managed pond / paddy-integrated) | Indicative unit basis for scaling |
| Fresh azolla biomass | ~ 200–400 t fresh/ha/yr | Tropical multi-harvest, conservative end |
| Dry-matter equivalent | ~ 12–24 t DM/ha/yr | ~ 6 % DM content |
| Biofertilizer fraction (50 %) | ~ 6–12 t DM/ha/yr | Returned to paddy / cropland; replaces ~ 50–100 kg urea N equivalent |
| AD digester fraction (50 %) | ~ 6–12 t DM/ha/yr | Co-digested with C-rich substrates |
| Methane yield | ~ 1,500–3,500 m3 CH4/ha/yr | ~ 200–300 mL CH4/g VS, 60–75 % DM as VS |
| CBM (upgraded biomethane) | ~ 1.0–2.4 t CH4/ha/yr | EN 16723 specification |
| Methanol equivalent (if routed to synthesis) | ~ 1.6–3.8 t MeOH/ha/yr | Steam reforming + Cu/ZnO catalysis |
| SAF equivalent (if MTJ qualified) | ~ 0.6–1.5 t SAF/ha/yr | ~ 40 % MeOH-to-SAF mass yield, contingent on ASTM |
All Pillar I figures are indicative; conservative end of literature ranges; subject to validation by feasibility-stage pilot data.
An illustrative regional Pillar-II hub of 50,000 hectares — a scale comparable to existing single-region falcata plantation aggregates in Caraga — produces the following indicative annual material flows:
| Stage | Indicative figure (50,000 ha hub) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Sustainable annual biomass yield | ~ 500,000–900,000 t DM/yr | ~ 10–18 t DM/ha/yr indicative |
| Route II-A · Gasification + FT-SPK feed | ~ 250,000–450,000 t DM/yr | 50 % allocation indicative |
| FT-SPK total liquid output | ~ 75,000–180,000 t/yr | ~ 30–40 % mass yield from biomass |
| FT jet-range (SAF) cut | ~ 30,000–90,000 t/yr SAF | ~ 40–55 % of FT liquid as jet cut |
| FT diesel + naphtha co-products | ~ 35,000–90,000 t/yr | Drop-in diesel and bio-naphtha |
| Route II-B · HTL biocrude feed | ~ 250,000–450,000 t DM/yr | 50 % allocation indicative |
| HTL biocrude output | ~ 75,000–200,000 t/yr | ~ 30–45 wt % biocrude yield |
| Refinery co-processing oil-equivalent | ~ 0.55–1.4 million bbl/yr | Substitutes imported fossil crude in existing refinery |
| Biochar co-product | ~ 30,000–90,000 t/yr | Soil-conditioning, carbon storage |
An illustrative Pillar-III hub of 100,000 hectares dedicated to bioenergy sugarcane and sweet sorghum (additive to existing food-grade cane production) produces:
| Stage | Indicative figure (100,000 ha) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cane production | ~ 6–9 million t cane/yr | 60–90 t cane/ha/yr |
| Bagasse for cogeneration | ~ 1.5–2.5 million t/yr (50 % moisture) | Process steam + grid export |
| Cogeneration electricity (surplus) | ~ 600–1,200 GWh/yr | Grid export after on-site demand |
| Hydrous ethanol output | ~ 480,000–800,000 m3/yr | ~ 80 L EtOH/t cane indicative |
| Ethanol available for ATJ-SPK (after E10 mandate) | depends on E10 demand | Programme-stage allocation; closes E10 import gap first |
| SAF output (ATJ-SPK route) | ~ 200,000–450,000 t SAF/yr | ~ 0.55–0.65 L SAF/L EtOH; subject to allocation |
| Biogenic CO2 (fermentation) | ~ 0.4–0.7 million t CO2/yr | High-purity, capturable for industrial gas markets |
| Vinasse | ~ 5–10 million m3/yr | Routed to AD; biomethane co-stream into Pillar I |
Synthesising the per-pillar indicative figures, the Programme's first-decade aggregate SAF production capability sits in a band of several hundred thousand tonnes per year of drop-in synthetic paraffinic kerosene by Year 10, with the ATJ-SPK route (Pillar III) leading on volumes from Year 4–5 onwards (approved-pathway, commercially deployed today), the FT-SPK route (Pillar II) ramping from Year 6–7 onwards (approved-pathway, commercial-scale BTL projects entering operation), and the MTJ-SPK route (Pillar I) contingent on ASTM qualification expected in the 2026–2028 window.
For comparison, the Republic's domestic jet-fuel demand is approximately 4–5 million tonnes per year. The Programme's first-decade SAF output, at the indicative figures above, is an order-of-magnitude smaller than total domestic demand, but a meaningful fraction of credible early-mandate SAF blending requirements (e.g., ICAO CORSIA reference baseline; nascent national SAF mandates). The Programme's combined SAF + biocrude output, however, addresses a substantially larger fraction of the country's overall liquid-fuels position when crude-oil substitution via Pillar II Route II-B is included.
The Programme deliberately leads with the most mature, highest-TRL operations in Phase 1 (azolla cultivation, AD, biofertilizer; sugarcane cultivation, milling, fermentation, ATJ-SPK; falcata silviculture, biomass aggregation), and phases in higher-CAPEX, lower-TRL operations (commercial BTL FT-SPK; HTL at scale; methanol synthesis; MTJ-SPK) as Phase-2 and Phase-3 deliverables. This deliberate sequencing means Phase-1 economics rest on TRL 8–9 operations, while the strategic upside of Phase-2 and Phase-3 is structurally aligned with the global maturation curve of these technologies.